Measurabl’s Physical Climate Risk Exposure (PCRX) Feature allows you to identify the physical climate risks and opportunities across your portfolio. When analyzing your sites’ physical climate risks, it is essential to understand the methodology behind the scoring in order to confidently assess and act upon your site-specific risks.
Measurabl has partnered with Four Twenty Seven, an affiliate of Moody’s and a leading provider of data on physical climate and environmental risks, to provide a unique, flexible, and holistic view of the risk posed to your assets from earthquakes, floods, heat stress, water stress, hurricanes and typhoons, sea level rise, and wildfires. Four Twenty Seven measures risk through a score based on a scale from 0-100, 0 meaning no risk and 100 meaning highest risk.
See below for an in-depth breakdown of the physical risks and their potential business impacts, indicators, risk levels, risk category scores, and climate modeling information.
PCRX provides risk scores for the following climate hazards:
| Climate Hazard | Description | Potential Business Impacts |
| Floods | Change in rainfall conditions and size and frequency of possible floods |
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| Heat Stress | Increase in temperature |
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| Hurricanes & Typhoons | Exposure to past hurricanes and typhoons |
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| Sea Level Rise | Heightened storm surge, augmented by sea level rise |
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| Water Stress | Change in water supply and demand |
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| Earthquakes | Exposure to past earthquakes |
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| Wildfires | Change in fire potential |
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For each hazard risk score, Four Twenty Seven aggregates several indicators that capture different dimensions of absolute and relative risk in order to evaluate the change in risk exposure between the historical baseline period and the future period of 2030-2040. Sub-category indicator data comes from global climate models and other environmental datasets. The indicators for each risk category can be found below:
| Floods | Heat Stress | Hurricanes & Typhoons | Sea Level Rise | Water Stress | Earthquakes | Wildfires |
| Rainfall intensity (% change in an average year) |
Extreme temperature (% change relative to the baseline period) |
Cumulative wind speed (Knots) |
Absolute coastal flood exposure (Return period of inundation) |
Current Baseline Water Stress (Ratio - unitless) |
Shaking intensity (Modified Mercalli Intensity) |
Change in days with high wildfires potential |
| Wet days (Difference in days per year from baseline period) |
Extreme heat days (Difference in days from baseline period) |
Current Inter-annual Variability (Standard deviation) |
Change in maximum wildfire potential | |||
| Very wet days (Number of days in a year) | Energy Demand (Difference in degree days above 65°F) |
Future Water demand (Cubic km) |
Days with high wildfires potential | |||
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Flood frequency (Return period in years) |
Future Water supply (Cubic km) |
Maximum wildfire potential | ||||
| Flood severity (Meters of inundation during 1-in-100 year event) |
Water Demand Change (% change) |
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Water Supply Change (% change) |
The risk level is determined based on the risk category score using the thresholds described below:
|
Floods |
absolute score |
N/A |
0-27; Site likely not susceptible to inundation, but some future rainfall intensification expected |
28-49; At least some susceptibility to flooding based on historical record or future rainfall intensification |
50-74; Susceptible to some flooding and inundation during rainfall or riverine flood events |
>=75; Susceptible to high frequency and/ or severe rainfall or riverine flooding during a 100-year flood event |
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Heat Stress |
statistical percentile | N/A |
0-33%; Warming, but changes in extremes are relatively less severe |
34-66%; Warming, though changes are within range of global average |
67-94%; Relatively high changes in extremes compared to global average |
>=95%; Competition for water resources is extreme and future water supply failure is possible |
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Hurricanes & Typhoons |
absolute score |
0-24; no known historical occurrence |
25-39; Cyclone activity possible, but frequency or severity of past storms were relatively minimal |
40-59; Exposed to frequent and/ or severe cyclone activity based on historical record |
60-79; Situated in the regular path of cyclones |
>= 80; Situated in the regular path of cyclones, and severe cyclones are common |
|
Sea Level Rise |
absolute score |
0-39; Not coastal or near waterways hydrologically connected to the sea |
40-49; Coastal and over 10 meters above sea level; flooding is unlikely |
50-59; Coastal and under 10 meters above sea level; flooding possible |
60-69; Susceptible to some degree of coastal flooding in 2040, though relative changes in flood frequency are small |
>=70; Site never flooded historically, but is susceptible to coastal floods in 2040 |
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Water Stress |
statistical percentile |
N/A |
0-33%; Water supply and/or demand changes relatively small |
34-66%; Water supply and/or demand changes likely to increase competition for water resources in the future |
67-94%; Current water stress is likely already high and water supplies are diminishing |
>=95%; Competition for water resources is extreme and future water supply failure is possible |
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Earthquakes |
absolute score |
N/A |
0-49; In range of earthquake shaking potential, though damage to buildings is unlikely |
50-69; Few instances of building damage |
70-79; Poorly built buildings likely to suffer some damage |
>=80; Damage to most buildings likely |
| Wildfires
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statistical percentile |
0; area is not burnable based on land type (e.g. desert, bare areas, waterways) |
Percentiles: 0-33%; Low wildfire potential, relatively little change in potential wildfire severity and relatively fewer high risk days
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Percentiles: 34-66%; Moderate wildfire potential, with some degree of change in future wildfire severity
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Percentiles: 67-94%; High wildfire potential and/or high availability of burnable fuel, with sizable increases in future wildfire severity and high risk days
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Percentiles: >=95%; Very high wildfire potential and availability of burnable fuel, and at least several additional weeks of high risk days
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Modeling Exposure to Climate Hazards:
| How does PCRX model exposure to climate hazards? |
The data provider for PCRX, Four Twenty Seven, evaluates the degree and extent of climate change exposure by using the outputs of five statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. CMIP5 is an international effort among the climate modeling community to coordinate climate change experiments (e.g. climate models). CMIP5 (pronounced like see-mip-5) is seen as the global standard amongst climate scientists. There are several models Four Twenty Seven could choose from (~60 models) and they chose to work with the five that best simulate the physical risks (above). An average of the outputs from these models form the basis for their risk scores. |
| What baseline is used for the climate projections of PCRX? | Four Twenty Seven initialize’s their baseline using the period of 1975-2005 as a historical benchmark, and project future states in 2030-2040 under the “Business as Usual” scenario (RCP 8.5 concentration pathway). |
| What is an RCP? |
A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectory. Four pathways have been selected for climate modeling and research. They describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on the volume of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted in the years to come. |
| Why RCP 8.5? | Four Twenty Seven believes this scenario to be the most valid for modeling purposes, as any potential policy actions will only have a discernible impact on climate change by around 2050. Four Twenty Seven does not run other scenarios before 2040 as the scenarios show few differences. |
| Is RCP 8.5 the only scenario used for PCRX? | At this time, yes.
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For more insight into how Four Twenty Seven’s risk scores are calculated, reference this PCRX FAQ!
If you have additional questions regarding methodology, please reach out to us!